Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground’s daily history in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, though the exact range is unspecified in the prompt.

Historically, mid-July in Tokyo sees peak daytime temperatures between 30°C and 35°C, with Haneda Airport often recording slightly lower values due to coastal exposure. In 2023, Tokyo reached 35.5°C on 19 July, while 2022 saw 34.8°C on 16 July at the same station, indicating that temperatures near or above 35°C are plausible but not guaranteed. A 0% probability may reflect an overly narrow range or a misalignment between the crowd’s expectation and the actual threshold.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecast updates and any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns, which can suppress peak temperatures. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum, so verifying the station’s data feed and time-zone alignment is critical for programmatic approaches. Conditional orders tied to real-time temperature APIs could automate entry once forecasts breach the range threshold, but latency in data ingestion remains a key dependency.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.