Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 15 July 2026, with settlement confirmed via Wunderground history for the Mississauga station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 100% for the YES outcome, yet the distribution across specific ranges reveals a 32% chance for 31°C and 28% for 32°C, indicating the binary YES tag likely covers a broad range rather than a single point[1].

Historical mid-July peaks at Pearson typically hover between 28°C and 34°C, with the current 34°C reading at the airport suggesting mid-range volatility rather than an extreme outlier[3]. A 100% probability on a binary weather outcome usually implies the market defines YES as any temperature within a plausible, non-extreme band; traders should verify if the underlying contract resolves to a specific range or a binary threshold, as the 32% frontrunner for 31°C suggests the market expects a moderate summer day rather than a record breaker[1].

Programmatically, a bot should monitor the Wunderground daily history endpoint for CYYZ, parsing the `max_temp` field at 12:00Z UTC on settlement day to auto-resolve positions. Key catalysts include the Environment Canada heat forecast schedule for the Greater Toronto Area, which often updates 24 hours prior to peak heat events, and any sudden shifts in the 500mb pressure ridge over Ontario that could push temperatures above 35°C[2]. Copy-trading logic should weight the 31–32°C cluster heavily, as the current 34°C reading is likely a transient afternoon spike rather than the daily maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.