Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington International Airport’s high on 21 June will be set by the day’s warmest observation at NZWN, with settlement depending on the Wunderground daily-history page rather than a forecast headline. At 0130 UTC, the airport was reporting mostly cloudy conditions, light southerly flow and visibility above 7 miles, which puts the market in a live intraday setting rather than a pre-event one.[6]

The 0% implied probability for the top temperature range is consistent with how late-day weather markets often reprice when the opening observation already sits far above the climatological winter baseline. June normals at Wellington Airport are roughly 12–13°C for daytime maxima, while a recent MetService post noted Wellington had already beaten its record June maximum with more than 19°C recorded earlier in the month, showing that unusually warm spikes do occur even in winter.[5][3][4] For a programmatic approach, the useful inputs are the airport observation feed and the Wunderground history page, then a simple rule that maps the eventual daily high into the market’s Celsius bands.

The main catalysts are any midday wind shifts, clearing cloud, or late-afternoon sun breaks that can lift the airport maximum before the UTC settlement window closes. Wellington is a coastal site where short-lived warm pulses can be driven by synoptic changes and local downslope flow, so a trader watching automated triggers would typically monitor hourly airport observations and any MetService updates alongside the Wunderground daily high page, rather than relying on a single forecast print.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.