Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. With the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sitting at 0%, the market effectively treats any temperature above a specific threshold as impossible, despite historical variability.

Historical precedents frame this probability sharply: June 1 saw a market-implied 20°C, while June 25 settled at 13°C, and recent records show Wellington beating its maximum June temperature with over 19°C recorded earlier this month[8]. However, the current market for 26 June heavily favours 11°C at 98%, suggesting a significant cooling trend compared to early June peaks[1][3]. Programmatically, a bot would cross-reference these daily shifts against the 42% overcast probability typical for June to validate the 0% "YES" stance[5].

Traders should monitor MetService NZ announcements for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns, as Wellington’s weather is highly dependent on marine influences[8]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, so real-time Wunderground updates become critical dependencies for conditional orders[4]. No catalysts currently suggest a temperature spike, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the 11°C outcome[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.