Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low will be taken from the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” for 10 August, and the market only resolves once that daily extract is published. At 5am UTC, the live setup matters more than the headline forecast: a bot or spreadsheet should be polling the Observatory page for the finalised value, because the result is a single decimal and the settlement depends on the published minimum, not the forecast low.

The 0% YES price implies the crowd is treating a very low-temperature outcome as effectively impossible, which is consistent with August climatology in Hong Kong. Long-run August normals put mean minimum temperatures around 26–27°C, while weather history sites place typical early-August lows closer to 27–28°C and show that even the low end of the month usually stays in the high 20s. In the available August comparison data, the record low cited for the month is 26.7°C, which is still far above the lower ranges that would usually be associated with a “cold” print for this market.[3][4][6][12]

For traders using programmatic workflows, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s daily extract timing, any late-night thunderstorm or rain band that suppresses the minimum, and whether the official reading is updated after midnight local time. Current public forecasts for Hong Kong show a hot, humid day with showers, and the overnight low still centred in the low 30s/upper 20s Fahrenheit equivalent, which maps to the high 20s Celsius rather than anything close to the lower bands that would move a “lowest temperature” market.[9][13][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.