Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 4 June 2026, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The resolution mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs hourly observations and derives daily maxima automatically. This creates a straightforward data dependency: traders need only verify that Wunderground's station feed remains operational and that no data gaps occur during the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 4 June.

Guangzhou's June temperatures historically cluster between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Comparable June days from prior years show that whilst sustained heat is reliable, the precise daily maximum varies by 5–7°C depending on cloud cover and convective activity. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should cross-reference Baiyun's historical daily maxima from June 2015–2025 via Wunderground's archive tool to calibrate their own forecasts against the crowd's apparent consensus.

The primary catalyst is the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon, which typically intensifies across southern China in early June. Recent meteorological outlooks from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) will inform whether 2026 tracks toward above-normal or near-normal temperatures for the season. Traders should monitor CMA's 10-day forecasts released in late May, as these influence both atmospheric pressure patterns and the likelihood of heat-dome conditions that would push daily maxima toward the upper end of the historical range.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.