Highest temperature in London on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily maximum temperature. This market resolves to whichever temperature band captures that peak reading, measured in Celsius and sourced from Wunderground's historical data portal. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, allowing traders to incorporate morning forecasts before final odds lock.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range distribution or awaiting clearer forecast data. Historical June extremes at City Airport span from 13°C (cool, unsettled conditions) to 32°C (rare heat events), providing a wide calibration baseline. Comparable European airports show June maxima cluster around 22–26°C under seasonal norms, with outliers driven by Atlantic pressure systems or continental air masses.

Traders monitoring this market should track the UK Met Office's extended forecast from late May onwards, particularly any alerts for high-pressure systems or heat advisories in the week preceding 4 June. Programmatic approaches would benefit from automated pulls of Wunderground's historical volatility for the same date across prior years and real-time integration of European weather model consensus (ECMWF, GFS) to weight probability across temperature bands. The resolution source's accessibility via web scraping makes this suitable for conditional order automation tied to forecast updates.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.