Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. Early June sits within Seoul's transition period from late spring to early summer, when daytime highs typically range between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the market mechanics or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts as the date approaches.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, maximum temperatures on comparable early-June dates ranged from 21°C to 31°C, with an average around 26–27°C. Unusually warm patterns—driven by early-season high-pressure systems or tropical air masses—have occasionally produced readings above 30°C in this window. Traders building conditional orders or automated monitoring systems should note that Weather Underground's historical data updates daily and includes sub-daily granularity, allowing programmatic verification against the settlement source well before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

The primary catalyst is the East Asian monsoon onset timing and any anomalous pressure patterns developing in late May. South Korea's Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; traders tracking seasonal climate indices and upper-air patterns can anticipate whether June 4 falls within a cooler, wetter phase or a warmer, drier ridge. Real-time monitoring of Incheon's recorded highs from late May onwards will sharpen probability estimates as the settlement date nears.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.