Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Early June in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C as the city transitions into summer monsoon season, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement mechanism relies on a single authoritative source—Wunderground's historical records for that specific station—making this market straightforward for automated resolution but dependent on data availability and accuracy at settlement time.

Historical June temperatures in Shanghai show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, early June highs ranged from 26°C in cooler years to 35°C during heat events, with the most common range clustering around 29–31°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending typical June conditions. For programmatic traders, the key dependency is Wunderground's data pipeline; conditional orders should account for potential delays in historical record publication, which occasionally lag by 24–48 hours.

Catalysts affecting Shanghai's June weather include the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon, typically strengthening through early June, and any developing tropical systems in the Western Pacific. The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks in May that can shift trader positioning. Traders building automated systems should verify Wunderground's station identifier (ZSPD) remains consistent and test fallback resolution sources, as airport weather stations occasionally undergo maintenance that could affect data continuity.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.