Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded on 6 July 2026 at the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. This single daily peak determines the settlement range, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range being bet on.

Historical patterns for early July in São Paulo show afternoon highs typically clustering between 18°C and 22°C, with the most frequent readings around 20°C to 21°C[7]. While summer heatwaves have pushed temperatures higher elsewhere in Brazil, such as Rio’s record heat index of 62.3°C in March 2024[1][2], July in São Paulo remains cooler, with average daily highs around 22.7°C on the warmest day of the month[5]. AccuWeather’s forecast for July 2026 indicates daily highs ranging from 66°F to 78°F (approximately 19°C to 26°C)[4], reinforcing that extreme heat is unlikely in this period.

A programmatic trader should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and cross-reference with local meteorological announcements for any sudden heatwave developments. Recent news highlights Brazil’s vulnerability to extreme heat, with Rio experiencing record temperatures in early 2024[1], but no specific July 2026 heatwave has been announced yet. Traders should also watch for dependencies like cloud cover, wind patterns, and rainfall schedules, which can suppress peak temperatures. The settlement window ends on 6 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, so data updates must be tracked continuously until that point.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.