Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s settlement will be driven by the hottest reading captured at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 10 August, with the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground taking priority over the summary box if they diverge. For a programme-trading setup, that means the relevant input is a single station day-high in °C, so bots should monitor intraday observation rows rather than any headline “day high” field, and map the final maximum into the market’s settlement band. Weather Underground’s history pages also show the hourly table structure the market is explicitly anchored to[7][14].

Shanghai in August is typically hot and humid, with long-run August averages around 32–33°C for highs and about 26°C for lows, so the market is fundamentally a question of whether the day stays near seasonal norms or spikes above them[1][8][17]. Recent comparable August records show a wide spread: historical datasets include days in the low 30s°C, but also isolated hotter outcomes reaching the upper 30s°C in recent years[9][10]. That range is useful for pricing because a 0% implied chance suggests the market is currently treating an extreme-heat reading as very unlikely, not impossible, and the actual answer will depend on whether the airport station manages a late-afternoon peak.

The main catalysts are the live forecast updates, the passage of the afternoon heating window, and any rain or thunderstorm timing that suppresses the maximum temperature before the settlement cut-off. Time and Date’s forecast and history pages currently show Shanghai with high humidity, rain and overcast/flood-risk conditions on 10 August, which would typically cap the daily maximum if verified by the airport observations[13][2]. For a bot workflow, the practical approach is to poll the source on a short interval, compare each new hourly value against the current session high, and only adjust exposure when the observed maximum moves across a payout threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.