Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington Airport will record a single highest temperature on 4 June 2026, measured in Celsius and falling within one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Wunderground's Wellington International Airport station, requiring traders to cross-reference live conditions against archived records for that specific date and location. For programmatic approaches, the resolution source is stable and machine-readable, though the timestamp window (settlement at 12:00 UTC) creates a narrow reconciliation period if the day's peak occurs near midnight local time.

June sits within Wellington's winter season, when daily maxima typically range between 10–14°C depending on synoptic patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Historical June data from the past decade shows Wellington rarely exceeds 18°C during this month; temperatures below 8°C are uncommon but occur in roughly one in five years during cold frontal passages. A trader automating range selection would benefit from pulling five-year Wunderground archives for early June to calibrate baseline expectations before live-trading the market.

Catalysts centre on Southern Hemisphere weather systems crossing the Tasman Sea in late May and early June. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes monthly outlooks; their May 2026 forecast will indicate whether anomalous warmth or cold is expected. Automated conditional orders could trigger on NIWA guidance shifts or on real-time airport METAR feeds showing temperature trends 48 hours before settlement, allowing traders to adjust positions as the actual day approaches and observational data narrows uncertainty bands.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.