Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 60% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 59% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| O/U 40.5 | 54% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| O/U 42.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 45.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 37% |
| 1H Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 24% |
| O/U 50.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 22% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 19% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 18% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 18% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Safety? | 9% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 5% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to steelers vs. patriots. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game is post…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $2.0M.
Methodology
We track Steelers vs. Patriots across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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